The war with Iran could trigger the next global economic crisis

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US President Donald Trump and former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. (Photo: Kurdistan24)

The current military escalation in the Persian Gulf reveals an important transformation in the strategic dynamics of the Middle East. The conflict has begun to affect a broader set of actors and structures that sustain the regional order and the global economy. Gulf countries that traditionally sought to maintain a position of balance between great powers and regional rivalries now find themselves progressively drawn into the center of the crisis. This shift is occurring not because they chose to participate in the war, but because their geography, their security alliances, and their economic importance have made them inevitably vulnerable to the effects of the conflict.

Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the Gulf states have built their security architecture in close cooperation with the United States. This partnership allowed the installation of American military bases and the development of a deterrence system primarily aimed at containing Iran’s influence. For decades, this arrangement was perceived as a stabilizing element in the region. However, the very military presence that was meant to guarantee security has turned these countries into potential targets whenever tensions between Washington and Tehran reach critical levels. Infrastructure such as the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar or the facilities of the United States Fifth Fleet in Bahrain illustrate this paradox: they are instruments of strategic protection, but also potential points of vulnerability in moments of escalation.

The Iranian response to the military operations of its adversaries appears to reflect a strategy aimed at deliberately expanding the costs of the war. Rather than limiting its actions to military targets directly involved in operations against its territory, Tehran has shown willingness to strike economic and logistical infrastructure in neighboring countries. This strategy is based on two premises. The first is that Iran possesses sufficient asymmetric capability, particularly in the use of drones and ballistic missiles, to threaten diverse targets across a broad geographic area. The second is that the economic and political pressure resulting from such attacks could encourage regional governments to press Washington for a diplomatic solution. In other words, Iran’s calculation appears to seek the internationalization of the costs of the war, transforming countries that would prefer to remain neutral into actors interested in containing the escalation.

This calculation, however, involves significant risks. By targeting infrastructure in Gulf countries, Iran may reinforce perceptions of threat among governments that in recent years had been attempting to reduce regional tensions and promote initiatives for dialogue. Statements by regional leaders and diplomats indicate that such attacks strengthen narratives portraying Iran’s missile program as a central source of instability in the Middle East. If these governments conclude that diplomatic containment has failed, the consequence may be a deepening of military cooperation with the United States and even indirect or direct participation in operations against Iran.

Death of Ali Khamenei

At the same time as this regional dimension unfolds, the conflict is taking place at a particularly sensitive moment for Iranian domestic politics. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei introduces an additional element of uncertainty into the political system of the Islamic Republic. The position of supreme leader is the central pillar of Iran’s institutional model, based on the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih, which grants a supreme religious authority the final control over the state’s main political and strategic decisions. Unlike more institutionalized political systems, in which succession occurs through predictable mechanisms, the transition of power in this context involves complex negotiations among different centers of influence, including the clerical establishment, political elites, and security forces.

Among these institutions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps occupies a particularly relevant position. Over the past decades, this organization has expanded its role far beyond traditional military functions, becoming a political and economic actor of considerable weight within the Iranian system. At a moment of transition in the supreme leadership, its influence may grow even further, especially if the regime perceives the need to strengthen mechanisms of internal control and national mobilization. Historically, regimes facing challenges of legitimacy or succession often resort to the rhetoric of external resistance to consolidate domestic support, which may contribute to maintaining a confrontational posture in regional policy.

Impact on the global economy

At the same time, the impact of the war is not limited to the military sphere or regional politics. One of the most significant aspects of the current crisis is the fact that it is directly affecting infrastructures that sustain the global economy. Over the past decades, the Gulf countries have become some of the main hubs of globalization, connecting flows of energy, trade, air transport, finance, and digital data. Cities such as Dubai and Doha have become logistical and financial centers whose importance extends far beyond the regional context. The presence of data centers from global companies, such as Amazon Web Services, illustrates how deeply the region has integrated into the digital infrastructures that sustain the functioning of the contemporary economy.

Attacks or incidents involving this type of infrastructure represent a relatively new phenomenon in the history of international conflicts. For much of the post–Second World War period, the major wars involving great powers occurred in regions that were peripheral to the global economy. Even prolonged conflicts such as the War in Afghanistan or the Iraq War did not directly threaten major global financial centers, large logistical hubs, or strategic digital networks. In the present case, however, the theater of operations includes precisely one of the most interconnected regions of the international economic system.

This reality makes the situation of the Strait of Hormuz particularly sensitive, as it is one of the most strategic chokepoints in global energy trade. A significant portion of global exports of oil, liquefied natural gas, and petrochemical derivatives passes through this narrow maritime route that connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean. Any prolonged disruption to this flow would have immediate effects on international energy markets, potentially raising prices, pressuring production chains, and increasing inflation in various economies. Moreover, shifts in these flows may create opportunities for other energy exporters, such as Russia, which could expand its share in Asian markets if Gulf suppliers face logistical or operational difficulties.

Another important aspect is the impact on global logistics chains. Beyond being an energy corridor, the Gulf has also become a central link in maritime and air transport networks connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa. Ports, free zones, and airports in the region play a fundamental role in the movement of goods, capital, and people. Disruptions to these flows may generate cascading effects across sectors ranging from manufacturing industries to financial markets and international cargo transportation. In this way, the war ceases to be merely a regional security problem and becomes a systemic risk to the functioning of the globalized economy.

Faced with this scenario, a strategic dilemma emerges for the United States. By opting for military operations against Iran, Washington sought to reaffirm its deterrence capacity and limit Iranian military activities in the region. However, the Iranian response exposed important weaknesses in this calculation. By expanding the scope of attacks and targeting infrastructure in countries allied with the United States, Tehran has managed to significantly increase the political and economic costs of the conflict for Washington’s regional partners. This creates internal pressure within those countries to seek rapid de-escalation, even if that implies pressing the American ally to reconsider its strategy.

In this context, Gulf governments find themselves in a particularly delicate position. On the one hand, they depend on the security guarantees provided by the United States to balance Iran’s regional power. On the other, their economic prosperity fundamentally depends on regional stability, the confidence of international investors, and the uninterrupted functioning of the trade and transportation networks that cross the region. The more the conflict threatens these economic foundations, the greater the incentive for these countries to act as mediators or advocates for a diplomatic solution.

Thus, the current conflict reveals a fundamental characteristic of contemporary international politics: the growing interdependence between security and the global economy. In a highly interconnected world, regional wars can quickly produce effects that transcend geographic borders and spread through financial, energy, and logistical networks. The Persian Gulf, simultaneously an energy center and a hub of globalization, has become a critical point where geopolitical rivalries and global economic flows intersect. For this reason, the evolution of this conflict will have implications that go far beyond the relationship between Iran, the United States, or their immediate allies, potentially influencing international economic stability and the very configuration of the regional order in the Middle East in the coming decades.

References

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