Morocco and Western Sahara: what to expect?

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A bulldozer passes over a hilltop, operated by Moroccan soldiers, on a road between Morocco and Mauritania, in Guerguerat, Western Sahara, on November 23, 2020. (Photo: AFP)

Western Sahara, a desert region on the northwest coast of Africa, was a Spanish colony until the mid-1970s. After Spain’s withdrawal, Morocco and Mauritania claimed the territory, but resistance came from the Polisario Front, a liberation movement that declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in 1976. Mauritania eventually abandoned its claims in 1979, but Morocco annexed most of the territory, triggering a prolonged armed conflict.

In 1991, a UN-mediated ceasefire envisioned a referendum for self-determination, but the vote never took place due to Moroccan objections, mainly regarding voter eligibility. The stalemate persisted until 2020, when the ceasefire collapsed following a Moroccan crackdown on Sahrawi protests, reopening military confrontations.

Morocco’s Interest

Morocco considers the territory part of its territorial integrity, calling it the “Moroccan Sahara.” Beyond the nationalist and symbolic dimension, the country has strong economic interests: the region contains vast phosphate reserves (about 70% of the world’s total), which are crucial for fertilizer production and global food security. The territory also holds geopolitical significance, serving as a strategic point on the Atlantic and a link in regional relations.

For this reason, Rabat insists on offering only limited autonomy while maintaining Moroccan sovereignty. This proposal has attracted growing support from powers such as the U.S., France, and Spain, which see Morocco as a key partner in migration, counterterrorism, and regional stability.

Opposition from the Polisario Front

The Polisario Front advocates for full self-determination through an independence referendum. Its political project is represented by the SADR, which is recognized by over forty countries and is a member of the African Union (AU). The movement maintains its bases in southern Algeria, a country that provides military and political support, reinforcing the historic rivalry between Algeria and Morocco.

Additionally, the involvement of external actors, such as Iran, accused of supplying weapons to the Polisario, raises the perception that the conflict may serve as a stage for proxy disputes.

International Community’s Stance

• In favor of Morocco: USA, France, Spain, and several Western countries, prioritizing security, regional stability, and migration cooperation.

• In favor of the Polisario/SADR: Algeria, parts of Africa, and Global South countries that support decolonization and the principle of self-determination.

• Neutral/avoiding confrontation: European Union as a bloc and part of the UN, recognizing the territory as “non-self-governing,” but without imposing effective sanctions on Rabat.

Within the African Union, SADR’s membership in 1984 led Morocco to withdraw from the bloc, returning only in 2017. Since then, the AU has avoided addressing the issue centrally, to prevent deepening internal divisions.

The Western Sahara conflict combines historical, economic, and geopolitical dimensions, making a simple solution difficult. The current scenario suggests that:

• Morocco’s position tends to gain more international legitimacy, especially among Western countries dependent on partnership with Rabat.

• The Polisario, though resilient, faces growing diplomatic isolation, maintaining support mainly from Algeria and parts of Africa.

• The risk of military escalation remains, particularly given the increasing use of drones and the indirect involvement of external powers.

  
  

An independence referendum seems increasingly unlikely, while the autonomy proposal under Moroccan sovereignty gains strength as the most viable alternative, even if rejected by the Polisario.

In summary, Western Sahara is likely to remain a frozen conflict, with intermittent episodes of violence, as Morocco consolidates its position and the international community, for the most part, favors strategic pragmatism over the Sahrawi right to self-determination.

We recommend these books for those who want to delve deeper into the subject:

1. The Western Sahara Question and International Law: Recognition Doctrine and Self-Determination

2. Western Sahara and the Frente POLISARIO

3. Minurso - United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara: Peace Operation Stalled in the Desert, 1991-2021

References

ARMSTRONG, H. R. The Case for Partition in Western Sahara. Disponível em: <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/western-sahara/partition-solution-morocco>.

ELJECHTIMI, A. Trump reaffirms support for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. Reuters, 2025.

LOVATT, H. Can Trump make a deal on Western Sahara? Disponível em: <https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/can-trump-make-deal-western-sahara>.

MOCERI, A. Morocco Makes a New Case for Sovereignty Over Western Sahara. Disponível em: <https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/morocco-western-sahara-development/>.

SUN, E. What Does the Western Sahara Conflict Mean for Africa? Disponível em: <https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-does-western-sahara-conflict-mean-africa>.