New Modi Doctrine: an uncertain future

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Indian paramilitary personnel patrol the streets of Srinagar in the Jammu and Kashmir region near the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the Supreme Court verdict on revoking the region's autonomy, December 11, 2023. Photo: AFP - TAUSEEF MUSTAFA

Since the April 22, 2025 attack, which resulted in the death of 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir, the region has once again become one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints. In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a forceful speech in English, vowing to identify and punish all those responsible for the terrorism, as well as their supporters. This message was directed not only at the Indian population, but also at Pakistan and the international community, indicating that India is considering a strong military response. The episode revived memories of the 2019 confrontation, when similar attacks culminated in mutual military actions and brought India and Pakistan to the brink of a major conflict. On that occasion, the crisis was contained thanks to the intervention of foreign powers and fortunate circumstances.

However, the current scenario is more volatile. The increasing centralization of Indian control over Kashmir, coupled with the Modi government's hardline policies, has intensified the alienation of the predominantly Muslim local population. As a result, the recent massacre has heightened tensions between the two countries, with Indian leaders and public figures calling for retaliation and Pakistani authorities condemning India’s actions in the region.

To better understand this context, below is a timeline summarizing the key historical milestones in India–Pakistan relations, with particular emphasis on the Kashmir dispute.

Timeline of India–Pakistan relations and the Kashmir issue

• 1947 – Partition of India and First Indo-Pakistani War

  With the Indian subcontinent’s independence from the British Crown in 1947, the region was divided into two states: Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, initially composed of two geographically separate regions — West Pakistan and East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). Disagreements over the sovereignty of the region led to the First Indo-Pakistani War. The conflict ended in 1948 with a UN-mediated ceasefire, which resulted in the division of Kashmir between the two countries.

  
  

• 1965 – Second Indo-Pakistani War

  In 1965, Pakistan launched an offensive to seize the region of Kashmir under Indian control. The conflict was halted after mediation by the Soviet Union and the United States, culminating in the signing of the Tashkent Declaration. The parties agreed to restore the pre-conflict borders and not to interfere in each other’s internal affairs.

• 1971 – Third Indo-Pakistani War

  The third war originated in the political crisis in East Pakistan, where electoral disagreements led to the outbreak of a separatist movement. The violent repression by Pakistani armed forces caused a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions of refugees seeking shelter in India. In response to India's support for the Bengali separatists, Pakistan launched attacks on Indian territory, triggering the war. After about two weeks of conflict, West Pakistan was defeated and East Pakistan declared its independence, giving rise to the People's Republic of Bangladesh.

• 1980 – Present

  Since the 1980s, Kashmir has faced persistent violence and instability. Starting in 1989, an armed separatist insurgency began in Indian-administered Kashmir, involving militant groups, some with links to Pakistan. The conflict led to decades of clashes, repression, and terrorist attacks. In 1999, the Kargil Conflict marked a critical moment, with the infiltration of Pakistani troops and militants into Indian territory, prompting a military response that nearly escalated into nuclear war.

  
  

  During the 2000s, there were attempts at ceasefire and bilateral dialogue, but these initiatives were repeatedly interrupted by attacks, such as the 2008 Mumbai bombing. Tensions rose again in 2016 after attacks on Indian troops, followed by retaliatory operations. In 2019, a suicide bombing in Pulwama, claimed by a Pakistani group, led to aerial bombings between the two countries and India’s revocation of Kashmir’s constitutional autonomy. Since then, the region has remained under tense stability, marked by a strong military presence, sporadic violence, and the absence of a lasting political solution.

The contested region of Kashmir

Sources: U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, India's Office of the Inspector General, Pakistan's Ministry of Defense. Graphic: Lou Robinson and Henrik Pettersson, CNN

South Asia on the Brink of War

Following the terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in April 2025, the Narendra Modi government took unprecedented measures, signaling a significant escalation compared to previous crises, such as that of 2019. The boldest action was the unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), a historic pact mediated by the World Bank that guarantees Pakistan access to rivers essential for its agriculture and water security.

This rupture was justified by New Delhi as a means of pressuring Islamabad to credibly and irrevocably renounce support for terrorism. However, India has not provided robust evidence of Pakistani involvement in the attack, leading to accusations of "water terrorism" by Pakistan, which responded with strong rhetoric and economic retaliatory measures, such as closing its airspace and suspending bilateral trade.

Pakistan is now preparing an international legal action, considering approaching the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and the International Court of Justice, based on the alleged violation of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. The use of water as a tool of geopolitical pressure represents a dangerous innovation in the already volatile Indo-Pakistani relationship. It marks a qualitative shift in India’s doctrine, indicating a willingness to use long-term strategic tools, such as natural resource control, as instruments of coercion. This raises the risk of conflict, given the critical hydrological interdependence and the possibility of incidents escalating into armed confrontations.

Since the Ladakh crisis in 2020, India has reoriented its military doctrine, prioritizing the containment of China as a strategic objective. The deadly clash with Chinese troops that year along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) was the most serious in over half a century and prompted a systematic response from New Delhi. Since then, the country has heavily invested in modernizing its Armed Forces, focusing on readiness for high-intensity combat in challenging terrains such as the Himalayas.

In this context, the April 2025 terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir represents a strategic opportunity. Although New Delhi has denounced Pakistani involvement, India’s response may be less about the attack itself and more about the broader geopolitical moment. India now has the chance to project military power and practically test its readiness for simultaneous conflicts on two fronts — one against Pakistan, and another against China. More than simple retaliation, this stance allows India to exercise its deterrence capability and signal its evolution as an autonomous and prepared regional power.

Moreover, the escalation against Pakistan may serve an even more sophisticated geopolitical purpose: weakening the strategic partnership between Islamabad and Beijing. In recent years, Pakistan has become increasingly dependent on China, particularly in military terms, with the acquisition of equipment from the People's Liberation Army and the conduct of joint exercises. It is also a key part of the Belt and Road Initiative, notably the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

In this light, a forceful military response by India could have multiple effects: damaging Chinese military equipment operated by Pakistan, exposing operational vulnerabilities, and above all, casting doubt in Beijing over the reliability of its strategic partner. India thus uses the moment not only to assert itself against its historical rival, but also to create fissures in the alliance architecture that underpins China’s power projection in the region.

And the United States?

Washington has sought to prevent a military escalation between the nuclear neighbors. Both U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have called for restraint on India’s part and cooperation from Pakistan in holding the attackers accountable. Still, New Delhi’s accusations against Pakistan and rumors of possible military retaliation increase the risk of a broader conflict.

At the same time, the United States is intensifying its rapprochement with India, particularly through a trade agreement under negotiation. This move is seen as part of the U.S. strategy to contain China, by weakening the Asian giant’s alliances in the Global South. Analysts note that, if the agreement includes clauses explicitly hostile to Beijing, it could further strain already tense China–India relations, which have been marked by border disputes and mutual distrust.

China, in turn, faces a dilemma: while it maintains a strategic relationship with Pakistan, it also recognizes the importance of preserving some degree of cooperation with India, which plays a key role in the Global South and in multilateral forums such as BRICS. The deepening of the India–Pakistan conflict may force Beijing to choose between pressuring Islamabad to cooperate or reinforcing its alliance with Pakistan, which would further deteriorate its relations with New Delhi.

Domestically, India is reinforcing its defense doctrine focused on China’s containment and accelerating its strategic alignment with the U.S. This reorientation undermines India’s traditionally equidistant stance in great power rivalries and may signal a lasting reconfiguration of the regional order. India’s growing militarization, its pursuit of leadership in the Global South, and dissatisfaction with China’s dominant role in BRICS point to a future scenario of intensified strategic competition.

Thus, the Kashmir attack serves as a catalyst for a broader geopolitical realignment, in which the India–Pakistan rivalry intertwines with the China–U.S. dispute, and where New Delhi emerges as an increasingly active — yet pressured — actor in shaping the course of Asian and global politics.

References

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