International reserves and monetary sovereignty in times of systemic reconfiguration

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Bitcoin, gold and dollar. (Image: Shutterstock)

In 2025, gold and Bitcoin reached their highest prices ever recorded: the metal surpassed 4,000 dollars per troy ounce and the cryptocurrency exceeded 125,000 dollars per unit. Although these appreciation movements were reported as expressions of euphoria in financial markets, their most relevant consequences occurred in the sphere of international monetary policy. The record prices indicate a gradual shift in state strategies for reserve management, with direct implications for the contours of the contemporary monetary order.

The trend was anticipated by changes in central bank behavior beginning in 2022, with an emphasis on emerging economies and states subject to sanctions or geopolitical tensions. Data from the World Gold Council indicate that between 2023 and 2024, official demand for gold reached record levels. Among the largest buyers are China, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Poland, and Singapore. The search for physical and tangible assets, with low correlation to the global financial system, has intensified as a risk-mitigation strategy against currency concentration and the politicization of financial infrastructures.

The renewed centrality of gold is justified by its material and institutional properties. The asset involves no credit risk, is historically recognized as a store of value, and can be directly held by states. Unlike securities denominated in fiat currencies, gold operates beyond the reach of unilateral coercive measures. Its recent appreciation correlates with disruptive events and episodes of rising sovereign risk, as highlighted by the European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review.

The repositioning of reserves is not limited to the precious metal. Following the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in 2024, the crypto asset began to be included in the diversification portfolios of major financial institutions. This represents a regulatory inflection that expanded Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a financial instrument, even though its adoption as a reserve asset by central banks remains marginal. Its appeal stems from distinct attributes: programmed scarcity, absence of an issuing authority, and decentralized operation.

Although Bitcoin does not meet the classical criteria of a store of value, given its high volatility, energy dependence, and cyber vulnerability, it represents a political response to the erosion of institutional trust. The distrust not only reflects the crisis but also redefines the criteria used in the selection of strategic assets. In contexts of full confidence, institutional predictability and liquidity prevail. In contexts of fragmentation, attributes associated with autonomy and protection from external coercive measures gain relevance.

In this context, the composition of reserves ceases to be an exclusively technical decision and begins to play a communicative role. It conveys signals about the degree of institutional alignment, risk tolerance, and the preferred forms of international insertion of each state. In Brazil’s case, reserve management remains anchored in dollar-denominated assets, with marginal adjustments toward physical assets such as gold. The Central Bank adopts a moderate stance, guided by predictability and institutional stability. Even so, recent initiatives indicate a gradual search for instruments of greater autonomy. The implementation of the Real Digital (DREX), a digital currency issued by the Central Bank, represents a step in this direction. Although initially aimed at the domestic financial system, DREX enables the development of payment infrastructures potentially connectable to regional and transnational arrangements outside the dollarized circuit. Its immediate impact on reserves is limited, but its logic converges with the broader movement toward partial disengagement from traditional financial intermediaries and the strengthening of sovereign control over monetary flows.

The contrast with countries that have adopted more assertive diversification strategies shows that reserve policy has become a component of foreign policy. The choice between tangible, digital, or fiduciary assets projects preferences regarding global governance, the sanctions regime, and the desired degree of autonomy. In this process, reserve assets cease to function as neutral instruments of macroeconomic management and begin to reflect disputes over the nature of monetary authority.

United States fiscal instability, the use of the financial system as a coercive instrument, and the amplification of geopolitical risks have encouraged the reallocation of reserves toward assets less subject to external intervention. Recent empirical evidence points to a reconfiguration of central bank portfolios, with growing prominence of tangible and digital assets as forms of protection against monetary fragmentation and the erosion of institutional trust.

The appreciation of gold and the incorporation of Bitcoin are not isolated phenomena. They point to a broader reconfiguration of the language of value in international political economy. In this new environment, international reserves acquire the status of political assets. Thus, their function goes beyond compensating external imbalances, encompassing projections of identity, signals of reliability, and even choices about the contours of strategic autonomy. The debate on reserves is, therefore, inseparable from the discussion about the kind of order states are willing to accept, as well as the ways in which they intend to protect themselves when that order becomes unstable.

References

Banco Central do Brasil. Estatísticas das reservas internacionais. Brasília: BCB, 2025. Disponível em: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/relgestaoreservas/GESTAORESERVAS202503-relatorio_anual_reservas_internacionais_2025.pdf.

CoinDesk. Bitcoin Price Index & Market Report – April 2025. CoinDesk, 2025. Disponível em: https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin.

European Central Bank. The role of gold and Bitcoin in financial stability. Financial Stability Review, Frankfurt: ECB, 2025. Disponível em: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr

Hudima, T.; Kamyshanskyi, V. Bitcoin in Central Bank Reserves: A New Dimension of the US-China Power Struggle. Socio-Economic Relations in the Digital Age, v. 12, n. 2, 2025. Disponível em: https://www.ser.net.ua/index.php/SER/article/view/601

Kendrick, G. Weekly crypto report: Shutdown, risk and bitcoin premium.

Standard Chartered Insights, 2025. Disponível em: https://www.sc.com/en/insights/

World Gold Council. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2025. London: WGC, 2025.

Disponível em: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends

Deutsche Welle. O que está impulsionando as altas do ouro e do bitcoin? DW

Brasil, 2025. Disponível em: https://www.dw.com/pt-br/o-que-est%C3%A1-impulsionando-as-altas-do-ouro-e-do-bitcoin/a-1234567.