Germany 10 years after the refugee crisis: a crossroads between integration and restriction

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In 2015, Angela Merkel posed for a selfie with a Syrian immigrant. (Photo: Getty Images / S. Gallup)

In 2015, Angela Merkel projected the country as Europe’s moral leader by keeping borders open in the face of the Syrian crisis. In 2025, Friedrich Merz takes office with a package of tougher migration measures and a security agenda. Between these milestones, evidence has accumulated of successful integration, social frictions, institutional dilemmas, and a shift of the political debate’s center to the right.

The result of Merkel’s gamble

Germany, ten years after the refugee crisis, finds itself at a complex crossroads between integration and restriction. In 2015, the then chancellor, backed by humanitarian values, decided to allow thousands of people, mainly Syrians, to apply for asylum, effectively loosening the Dublin Regulation. The immediate effect was humanitarian relief along the Balkan Route and a decentralization of pressure on border countries, but also a significant burden on German municipalities, which faced major regional differences in hosting capacity.

The public narrative was marked by the motto Wir schaffen das (“We can handle this”), which became both iconic and a target of criticism. Merkel now acknowledges that her decision contributed to the strengthening of the far right represented by the AfD, but she reaffirms that the measure was “correct, reasonable, and humane,” noting that integration has achieved remarkable gains over the past decade. She also criticizes summary pushbacks and defends that asylum requests should undergo formal procedures, even when made at the border.

In terms of integration, the results are mixed, with clear progress but persistent inequalities. Regarding employment, official data indicate that about 69% of migrants fit for work who arrived in 2015 are employed, practically matching the national average—contradicting more alarmist political interpretations that suggested low integration. In terms of income, comparative studies from 2017 show an average wage gap of about 19.6% between first-generation migrants and natives, with three-quarters of this gap stemming from restricted access to higher-paying sectors, positions, and employers, rather than lower pay for the same work. Among second generations, this gap drops to about 7.7%, showing progress, though slower than in countries like Canada and Sweden.

Nationality-based differences are striking: in 2023/24, French, Benelux, Swiss, Chinese, American, Indian, and Brazilian migrants in formal employment reported median wages higher than Germans, while Syrians, Romanians, and Bulgarians remained below, largely due to concentration in lower-paying sectors such as care and services. On citizenship, 2024 marked a record 291,955 naturalizations, led by Syrians (28%) and Turks, who more than doubled their numbers. Naturalized Brazilians totaled 1,815, just 0.6% of the total. The reform reducing the minimum residency period to five years, three years in exceptional cases, and allowing dual nationality accelerated this process, though the new government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz intends to abolish the three-year path.

This reality highlights a dual movement: while a significant share of immigrants achieves economic integration and access to citizenship, others face structural barriers, such as language difficulties, diploma validation, and limited professional networks, keeping income gaps and fueling perceptions of incomplete integration. At the same time, recent Merz government measures, including restrictions on accelerated citizenship, suspension of family reunification for refugees with subsidiary protection, and tougher deportation rules, reflect a growing focus on controlling and limiting immigration, signaling a more cautious and selective Germany in contrast to the humanitarian policy of 2015.

Nevertheless, Germany still faces significant demographic and economic challenges: the country depends on skilled labor, and the selective emigration of “well-educated and economically active” migrants—driven by discrimination, bureaucracy, and an unfavorable political climate, threatens to undermine strategic sectors such as healthcare, IT, and education. Thus, Germany’s crossroads remains marked by the delicate balance between the need to integrate and retain immigrants, internal political pressure, and economic demand for workers, revealing a profound debate about identity, citizenship, and social justice in the country.

The Rise of Nationalism

Friedrich Merz is the leader of the Christian Democratic Union. (Photo: Michael Kappeler—DPA/Reuters)

German politics and public opinion have undergone profound changes since the shock of 2015. That policy opened space for the growth of nationalist and right-wing movements. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the main beneficiary, doubling its electoral result in 2025 and reaching 20.8% of the vote, consolidating the anti-immigration agenda as a central axis of political debate.

In this polarized context, Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), was elected chancellor on May 6, 2025, heading a broad conservative coalition formed by the CDU/Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). His election came amid political tensions, as the first vote was not enough, requiring a second round. Voter sentiment in the first 100 days reflects the complexity: 27% declared satisfaction with the government, while 60% expressed dissatisfaction, highlighting the difficulties of reconciling expectations of public order, security, and immigration policy with economic and social pressures.

Merz’s style combines foreign policy prominence with a conservative agenda, focusing on Ukraine, the European Union, NATO, and relations with the United States, while also engaging in symbolic micro-conflicts such as banning the rainbow flag at the Reichstag and disputes over Constitutional Court appointments, reinforcing the perception of a conservative reorientation in the political climate.

On immigration, the Merz government is implementing a clear strategy of “control and limit.” Border controls and summary rejections at entry have been reinforced, though legally contested. On asylum and deportation, the executive seeks to accelerate rejected claims, reclassify safe countries of origin without Bundesrat approval, and abolish the automatic assignment of a lawyer in pre-deportation custody, measures sensitive from a legal and constitutional standpoint. On family reunification, the government suspended for two years the entry of relatives of refugees with subsidiary protection, keeping only humanitarian exceptions, reducing pressure on municipalities but directly impacting large groups of Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis. On citizenship and integration, Merz ended the possibility of obtaining citizenship in three years, maintaining the five-year rule, signaling selectivity in favor of migrants qualified for the labor market but restrictiveness for other groups.

Merz’s institutional package represents an attempt to reinterpret European law and the German Constitution, such as the Dublin Regulation and the classification of safe countries, which is likely to lead to future litigation.

Talent retention and the immigration challenge

Talent retention underscores a central tension in German migration policy: despite control and selectivity measures, many immigrants still plan to leave the country. Data from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) for 2024/25 show that 26% of migrants considered leaving Germany, with 3% having concrete emigration plans. Interestingly, those most likely to consider leaving are the highly educated, with strong German skills and higher incomes, especially professionals in IT, finance, and business, with 30–39% expressing intent to emigrate, along with workers in healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics.

Motivations vary: for those returning to their home country, family reasons predominate; for those seeking other destinations, such as Switzerland, the United States, or Spain, career, salaries, taxes, excessive bureaucracy, and, crucially, discrimination weigh heavily. Nearly two-thirds of respondents reported discrimination, while a third felt little or not at all welcome. This creates a risk of “selective emigration” precisely among the profiles most needed by the German economy, leading to controversial measures such as the CDU’s proposal to tie foreign medical students to at least five years of service in the country or full reimbursement of their training. The lesson is clear: attracting skilled immigrants is not enough without effective retention mechanisms. Internal “doors” must be improved, ensuring credential validation, career progression, geographic mobility, respect, and a sense of belonging.

What to expect?

In this context, an integrated analysis of the past ten years reveals consistencies, tensions, and distinct scenarios. Among the consistencies, the record number of naturalizations in 2024 confirms that the 2015 policy created a significant cohort that integrated and chose to remain in Germany. Their employment rate is close to the national average, countering narratives of generalized failure, while the wage gap stems mainly from access barriers to certain sectors and positions. When these barriers are overcome, workers of some nationalities even reach median wages above those of Germans.

At the same time, important tensions persist. The Merz government’s law-and-order discourse responds to a political environment marked by AfD growth and a tougher public opinion but risks intensifying feelings of non-belonging and discrimination, fueling the departure of the most qualified. Businesses continue to face labor shortages, with 1.4 million job openings at the end of 2024 in healthcare, IT, construction, transport, and education, while municipalities struggle with housing, schools, and services. The education system also shows signs of strain: without strong preschool and early language support, cycles of underperformance and underemployment tend to reproduce.

Possible scenarios vary significantly. A selection-and-retention model would focus on skilled immigration with fast-track credential validation, anti-discrimination policies, reduced bureaucracy, and early educational support, reducing wage gaps, increasing productivity, and retaining talent. Conversely, a control-without-retention model, based on tighter borders and deterrent messaging, would reduce irregular flows but lose already-trained human capital, keeping critical vacancies open and raising pension costs in an aging population. Finally, a European recalibration, reforming the Dublin Regulation, the Schengen area, and external partnerships, could standardize refugee screening and distribution. Though difficult to implement in the short term, this would be decisive for the sustainability of Germany’s migration regime.

References

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