The newly elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, has recently expressed expansionist intentions toward multiple targets. Beyond Canada, the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of Mexico, no territory appears to have attracted as much interest as Greenland.
Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland reflects a strategic pivot to address China’s growing dominance in global supply chains. Greenland’s abundant reserves of rare earth elements—estimated at more than 1 million tons—along with significant deposits of uranium, nickel, and cobalt, present the U.S. with an invaluable opportunity to counterbalance Beijing’s grip on these critical resources (Wolff 2025).
Greenland’s mineral wealth is central to Trump’s strategy to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains. Rare earth elements are indispensable for producing batteries, wind turbines, semiconductors, and military hardware—key components of the 21st-century economy. As global demand for these resources is expected to triple by 2035, Greenland’s reserves offer the U.S. a way to mitigate its dependence on Chinese processing facilities (Wolff 2025). Additionally, Greenland’s geographic location near the Arctic provides strategic access to new shipping routes opened by melting ice caps. These routes reduce transport times for minerals and other goods, making Greenland an increasingly attractive asset for global trade.
Latin American market
Securing access to Greenland’s resources could enable the United States to reshape its economic relationships in Latin America. Countries such as Brazil, Chile, and Argentina, which are rich in lithium, copper, and agricultural products, have increasingly expanded their trade and investment ties with China. By establishing an independent supply of rare earth elements, the U.S. could leverage its surplus to negotiate resource-sharing agreements with these nations, offering a compelling alternative to Chinese influence.
For instance, Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile—home to the world’s largest lithium reserves—are critical players in the global green energy transition. With Greenland’s resources bolstering U.S. supply chains, the U.S. could provide these countries with advanced technology and financial investments in exchange for preferential trade agreements. Such arrangements would not only strengthen partnerships but also reduce their reliance on China for economic and technological support.
Greenland’s rare earth reserves could serve as a strategic bargaining tool to secure copper imports from Chile. This would diversify U.S. energy and technology supply chains while fostering deeper economic ties in the region. By utilizing Greenland’s resources strategically, the United States could position itself as a more attractive and reliable partner for Latin American nations, countering China’s growing influence in the region.
China's influence on the region
China currently dominates the global market for rare earth mining and processing, accounting for approximately one-third of known reserves, 60% of extraction, and 85% of processing. This dominance reached 95% in 2010, granting Beijing significant political and economic leverage over key production chains for Europe and the United States (Sanches 2025). Presently, two Australian mining companies are exploring rare earths in Greenland, one of which includes China's Shenghe Resources, a state-owned Chinese mining enterprise, as an investor.
For years, China has sought to deepen its presence in Greenland. In addition to cultural and technological projects, China has pursued influence in Greenland through infrastructure initiatives under the Polar Silk Road, an extension of Xi’s global Belt and Road Initiative. As part of this program, Chinese construction companies sought to build at least two airports in Greenland. However, they were ultimately outbid by Danish companies, reportedly due to U.S. pressure favoring Denmark (van Brunnersum 2022).
Greenland’s significance extends beyond its mineral wealth. The Arctic region has become a focal point for global powers due to its untapped resources and emerging shipping lanes. Trump’s interest in Greenland aligns with the broader U.S. objective of asserting influence in the Arctic, where China has increased its presence through investments. The success of this strategy will depend on balancing immediate mineral security needs with long-term diplomatic efforts to strengthen ties. If handled effectively, Greenland could become a cornerstone of a broader U.S. strategy to regain influence in the Western Hemisphere while countering China’s dominance in global resource supply chains.
Security matters
The strategic location of Greenland also enhances its value to the United States. The existing U.S. facility, Pituffik Space Base, plays a vital role in early missile warning systems and national defense, while also serving a critical function in space surveillance. Future expansions of the base could further enhance U.S. capabilities to monitor Russian naval movements in both the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic.
If Trump's proposed deal were to be approved, U.S. sovereignty over Greenland would effectively block any attempts by rival nations, particularly China, to establish a foothold on the island. Greenland’s growing movement toward independence—which has been steadily gaining momentum—could pave the way for increased and less regulated foreign investment (Jacobsen and Gronholt-Pedersen 2025). In such a scenario, China is viewed as particularly eager to step in should the opportunity arise.
This concern is compounded by the deepening security cooperation between Russia and China and the fact that Russia has generally adopted a more aggressive military posture. Thus, the issue with Trump’s proposal does not lie in a misdiagnosis of the underlying challenge it seeks to address. The growing Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic region is indeed a security concern in an era of intensifying geopolitical rivalry.
Four ways this saga could end
1. Trump loses interest
Trump’s comments on Greenland may have been a strategic move to pressure Denmark into strengthening its Arctic security in response to Russian and Chinese influence. Denmark had already announced a $1.5 billion Arctic defense package, coinciding with Trump’s remarks. Analysts believe Trump's spotlight on Greenland, even if his interest fades, has elevated its geopolitical importance. Independence remains a long-term goal for Greenland, but its leadership appears cautious, emphasizing a gradual approach to self-determination.
2. Greenland moves toward independence with U.S. Ties
There is widespread consensus that Greenland's independence is inevitable, though contingent on guarantees to maintain Danish subsidies that fund its healthcare and welfare systems. A possible interim step could involve a "free association" model, allowing greater autonomy while retaining some ties to Denmark. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s government seems more open to this idea, recognizing Denmark's colonial legacy. However, the U.S.’s historical and strategic interests in Greenland, established during World War II and reaffirmed in a 1951 agreement, suggest the U.S. presence would persist regardless of Greenland’s independence.
3. Trump increases economic pressure on Denmark
Speculation exists that Trump could use economic measures, such as increased tariffs on Danish or EU goods, to compel concessions regarding Greenland. Such tariffs, potentially enacted under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), could disrupt European growth and incentivize Danish firms to shift production to the U.S. Pharmaceuticals, a key Danish export, would be particularly affected, though price hikes could provoke domestic backlash in the U.S.
4. Trump invades Greenland
While unlikely, the scenario of U.S. military action cannot be entirely dismissed. The U.S. already maintains a significant military presence in Greenland, effectively holding de facto control over the island. However, any military action would trigger NATO’s Article 5, leading to an unprecedented crisis, as an invasion by one NATO member against another would undermine the alliance. Analysts compare Trump’s rhetoric to that of Xi Jinping on Taiwan or Vladimir Putin on Ukraine, warning that such actions could destabilize Western alliances.
Conclusion
The geopolitical and economic significance of Greenland has been thrust into the global spotlight, driven by the strategic interests of major powers such as the United States, China, and Denmark. Greenland’s vast resources, strategic Arctic location, and its potential path toward independence have become focal points in a broader competition for influence in the Arctic, a region increasingly seen as pivotal in the shifting dynamics of global power.
President Donald Trump’s controversial remarks about acquiring Greenland, while seemingly provocative, highlighted the island's importance to American security and economic strategy. Even if such rhetoric subsides, it has sparked critical discussions on Arctic defense, resource sovereignty, and the challenges of Greenlandic independence. Meanwhile, China’s growing Arctic ambitions, including its investments in Greenland and its "Polar Silk Road" initiative, underscore its intent to secure a foothold in the region, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
For Denmark, Greenland represents both a historical responsibility and a strategic asset. As Greenland moves closer to eventual independence, Copenhagen must navigate the delicate balance of maintaining influence while respecting Greenland’s aspirations, all while addressing external pressures from global powers. The Arctic’s increasing militarization, resource competition, and the interplay of national interests point to a future where Greenland will play a central role in shaping global security and economic alliances. How these dynamics unfold will not only define Greenland’s future but also reshape the broader geopolitics of the Arctic and beyond.
Bibliography
Brunnersum, Sou-Jie van. 2022. “China Failed Its Arctic Ambitions in Greenland.” POLITICO. October 22, 2022. https://www.politico.eu/article/china-arctic-greenland-united-states/.
Gozzi, Laura, and Robert Greenall. 2025. “Trump Wants to Take Greenland: Four Ways This Saga Could Go.” BBC News, January 11, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy3y8l8nwlo.
Jacobsen, Stine, and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen. 2025. “Greenland Independence Is Possible but Joining the US Unlikely, Denmark Says.” Reuters, January 8, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/greenland-leader-meet-danish-king-amid-trump-bid-take-over-territory-2025-01-08/.
Sanches, Mariana. 2025. “Groenlândia E Trump: As Riquezas Que Explicam Interesse Na Ilha - BBC News Brasil.” BBC News Brasil. January 9, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cpw2wv4dl59o.
Wolff, Stefan. 2025. “Trump’s Greenland Bid Is Really about Control of the Arctic and the Coming Battle with China.” The Conversation. January 9, 2025. https://theconversation.com/trumps-greenland-bid-is-really-about-control-of-the-arctic-and-the-coming-battle-with-china-246900.
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